Covid 19 e banche: è necessaria una parziale sterilizzazione della normativa NPL

Questa volta è diverso. Negli ultimi giorni si moltiplicano le comparazioni con gli eventi del 2008 e del 2011. Le conseguenze di allora sui mercati finanziari e sull’economia reale vengono spesso accostate con quanto sta accadendo in queste settimane o che potrebbe avverarsi nelle prossime. E si è riaperto anche il dibattito in merito alla necessità degli interventi delle Banche Centrali, la loro tipologia ed intensità. Eppure, in realtà la situazione è sostanzialmente diversa. L’elemento che accomuna quanto accaduto nella passata crisi con quanto sta avvenendo oggi è il forte rallentamento del commercio internazionale. Ma le cause di questi rallentamenti sono sostanzialmente diverse. Nel 2008, la crisi è stata di natura finanziaria-economica. Lo scoppio della bolla sui derivati ha creato non solo una perdita di valore di molte asset class, ma anche enormi buchi nei bilanci delle banche, accompagnati a crescenti assorbimenti patrimoniali. Nei Paesi che avevano recepito le indicazioni di Basilea, questo ha significato necessità di recuperare patrimonializzazione, anche sul lato delle ponderazioni del rischio legato al credito (RWA, come noto, è il denominatore di tutti i ratios di patrimonializzazione legato ai rischi di primo pilastro). Tutto ciò si è tradotto in un forte taglio agli accordati creditizi per i clienti meno meritevoli, ma anche nel non rinnovo nelle linee di credito legate all’import ed export. Stessa cosa è accaduta per le banche Statunitensi, ma non per colpa di Basilea, visto che gli USA non hanno mai aderito agli indirizzi della BSI, ma per problemi di leverage e del rispetto dei nuovi limiti imposti dal Governo e FED a seguito della crisi. La conseguenza è stato il crollo del commercio internazionale, che se vogliamo è stato l’anello di congiunzione tra la crisi finanziaria e quella reale. La cura, lo sappiamo molto bene, è stata fatta da forti stimoli monetari, accompagnati ove possibili da interventi di politica fiscale. Ma oggi quale è la situazione? Il crollo del commercio internazionale rimane l’anello che sta portando il mondo verso una forte contrazione economica, ma tutto ciò, chiaramente, non è il risultato di una crisi finanziaria. Le conseguenze dei contagi da Covid 19 hanno portato alla paralisi delle economie locali in diversi Paesi, con la conseguenza del crollo dei rapporti di interscambio, complice la ben nota integrazione cross-border delle supply chain nei più svariati settori. Gli effetti sono che dopo 5 anni si rivedono interviste del Dr Doom (Nourel Roubini) che aveva previsto la crisi del 2008. Ma sbagliato le successive due, non lo dimentichiamo. Riappaiono articoli e dichiarazioni in merito alla forma delle possibili riprese economiche (U shaped, L, W, V ecc, ecc). Insomma, un bel dejà-vu.

Però, al di là di tutto, la riflessione che volevo fare è la seguente. Negli anni 2009-2011 abbiamo sottostimato l’impatto che la crisi di allora avrebbe prodotto sul sistema bancario italiano. Ne parlo diffusamente nel libro Io sono last mile: come essere consulente bancario e finanziario nell’era del fintech, ed oggi è ben chiaro quanto siamo stati miopi nel non adottare immediate misure articolate a sostegno anche del settore bancario in un Paese come il nostro dove il grado di ‘bancarizzazione’ è talmente elevato. Oggi il rischio che si ripropone potrebbe essere lo stesso. Poiché i canali di trasmissione del rallentamento economico sono diversi, la politica monetaria potrà far ben poco, e non solo perché ha esaurito quasi tutte le armi convenzionali e non a disposizione. Qui non si tratta di restituire fiducia e stabilità ad un sistema bancario, ma supportare l’economia reale. Il problema è chiaramente più di politica fiscale che monetaria. Sicuramente si cercherà di prendere tutte le misure possibili di politica fiscale e di sicuro si avrà tutta la flessibilità di bilancio da parte della Commissione Europea. Ma non commettiamo lo stesso errore fatto nel 2008. Dobbiamo agire proattivamente anche nei confronti del sistema bancario. Anche perché nel frattempo, proprio a causa della crisi del 2008, la vigilanza è cambiata sostanzialmente. Non è più solo un problema di Basilea, oggi il problema per un Paese molto centrato sul credito alle PMI come il nostro si chiama DoD, definition of default. Cioè la gestione del credito deteriorato. Sicuramente l’impatto del Covid 19 si protarrà per un po’ di mesi, quantomeno fino a quando non si troverà un vaccino, tenuto conto che nel frattempo si avrà una ripresa delle attività in alcuni Paesi, ma sarà graduale, mentre in altri siamo ancora all’inizio. Questo significa che molte PMI e attività retail soffriranno, e non solo nelle aree dei focolai. Ma le regole attuali sulle misure di forbearance potrebbero penalizzare gli Istituti di credito che operano a sostegno dei clienti affidati in momentanea difficoltà tramite moratorie, ristrutturazioni ed altro. Senza parlare del peggioramento del merito creditizio di alcune linee, che seppur non deteriorate potrebbe portare ad una allocazione a stage 2 secondo l’IFRS9. In più c’è l’introduzione del nuovo DoD, che per le banche più piccole è dal primo gennaio 2021, proprio quelle banche che magari a livello locale possono essere più impattate dagli eventi recenti.

Se nell’ambito di uno stance di politica monetaria tradizionale i tassi di interesse sono stati gli strumenti indiretti per perseguire i mandati delle banche centrali, oggi l’azione sulla normativa bancaria può essere considerata lo strumento indiretto per perseguire politiche fiscali in maniera più efficiente ed efficace.

Pertanto, più che parlare di riduzioni di tassi già negativi, o di aumentare acquisti di titoli sui mercati, sarebbe opportuno che i nostri policymaker facessero pressioni sulle autorità di vigilanza e sul trilogo affinchè si introducessero delle misure temporanee che sterilizzino in parte gli effetti della normativa sugli NPL e dell’attività di staging prevista dall’IFRS9. Ad esempio, si potrebbero esentare le attribuzioni di misure di forbearance se riconducibili strettamente a difficoltà finanziarie temporanee legate al Covid 19, procrastinare di 6 mesi l’introduzione del nuovo DoD per le banche less signficant, esentare dal mettere in stage 2 nei prossimi bilanci le posizioni che hanno avuto un notevole peggioramento del merito creditizio per fatti riconducibili a tale evento.

Sarebbe altresì necessario che l’autorità di vigilanza richieda una analisi di impatto di tali eventi, soprattutto per le banche localmente più coinvolte, in modo poi da prendere decisioni opportune ed in linea con quanto suggerito nelle righe precedenti.

Tutti gli attori, compresi i rappresentanti di categoria, devono agire proattivamente per gestire questa situazione e per non commettere lo stesso errore fatto nel 2008 e nel 2010, di chiudere il cancello quando i buoi sono già scappati da un bel po’. Non possiamo neanche sempre sperare che arrivi il solito cavaliere bianco a togliere le castagne dal fuoco. L’attuale situazione richiede una convergenza di interessi che emerga dal basso e non dall’alto, dove tutti devono fare la loro parte.

I tempi sono maturi per un cambio di passo ed un salto di qualità. Maggiore azione di lobbying, maggiori analisi e dati a disposizione che evidenzino le necessità. Insomma, ‘alzare istituzionalmente la voce’ ex ante, con dati oggettivi alla mano. Non ex post, con la mano protesa in cerca di elemosina.

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  506. Giugno 19, 2025

    CharlesWeish

    Balanset-1A: Advanced Compact Balancer & Vibration Analyzer
    Professional Dynamic Balancing Solution
    Balanset-1A represents an groundbreaking solution for dynamic balancing of rotors in their own bearings, developed by Estonian company Vibromera OU. The device offers professional equipment balancing at €1,751, which is 3-10 times more affordable than traditional vibration analyzers while preserving exceptional measurement accuracy. The system allows field balancing directly at the equipment’s operational location without requiring disassembly, which is critically important for reducing production downtime.
    About the Manufacturer
    Vibromera OU is an Estonian company focusing in the design and manufacturing of devices for technical diagnostics of industrial equipment. The company is incorporated in Estonia (registration number 14317077) and has offices in Portugal.
    Contact Information:

    Official website: https://vibromera.eu/shop/2/

    Technical Specifications
    Detection Parameters
    Balanset-1A ensures precise measurements using a dual-channel vibration analysis system. The device measures RMS vibration velocity in the range of 0-80 mm/s with an accuracy of ±(0.1 + 0.1?Vi) mm/s. The functional frequency range is 5-550 Hz with potential extension to 1000 Hz. The system supports rotational speed measurement from 250 to 90,000 RPM with phase angle determination accuracy of ±1 degree.
    Operating Principle
    The device uses phase-sensitive vibration measurement technology with MEMS accelerometers ADXL335 and laser tachometry. Two uniaxial accelerometers measure mechanical oscillations proportional to acceleration, while a laser tachometer generates impulse signals for computing rotational speed and phase angle. Digital signal processing includes FFT analysis for frequency analysis and proprietary algorithms for automatic computation of correction masses.
    Full Kit Components
    The standard Balanset-1A delivery includes:

    Measurement unit with USB interface – primary module with embedded preamplifiers, integrators, and ADC
    2 vibration sensors (accelerometers) with 4m cables (optionally 10m)
    Optical sensor (laser tachometer) with 50-500mm measuring distance
    Magnetic stand for sensor mounting
    Electronic scales for accurate measurement of corrective masses
    Software for Windows 7-11 (32/64-bit)
    Plastic transport case
    Complete set of cables and documentation

    Performance Capabilities
    Vibrometer Mode
    Balanset-1A functions as a complete vibration analyzer with features for measuring overall vibration level, FFT spectrum analysis up to 1000 Hz, calculating amplitude and phase of the fundamental frequency (1x), and continuous data recording. The system delivers visualization of time signals and spectral analysis for equipment condition diagnostics.
    Balancing Mode
    The device supports single-plane (static) and two-plane (dynamic) balancing with automatic calculation of correction masses and their installation angles. The unique influence coefficient saving function enables substantial acceleration of subsequent balancing of identical equipment. A dedicated grinding wheel balancing mode uses the three-correction-weight method.
    Software
    The intuitive program interface provides step-by-step guidance through the balancing process, making the device available to personnel without specific training. Key functions include:

    Automatic tolerance calculation per ISO 1940
    Polar diagrams for imbalance visualization
    Result archiving with report generation capability
    Metric and imperial system support
    Multilingual interface (English, German, French, Polish, Russian)

    Application Areas and Equipment Types
    Industrial Equipment
    Balanset-1A is successfully used for balancing fans (centrifugal, axial), pumps (hydraulic, centrifugal), turbines (steam, gas), centrifuges, compressors, and electric motors. In manufacturing facilities, the device is used for balancing grinding wheels, machine spindles, and drive shafts.
    Agricultural Machinery
    The device represents special value for agriculture, where reliable operation during season is vital. Balanset-1A is used for balancing combine threshing drums, shredders, mulchers, mowers, and augers. The capability to balance on-site without equipment disassembly permits avoiding costly downtime during busy harvest periods.
    Specialized Equipment
    The device is successfully used for balancing crushers of various types, turbochargers, drone propellers, and other high-speed equipment. The speed frequency range from 250 to 90,000 RPM covers essentially all types of industrial equipment.
    Advantages Over Alternatives
    Economic Effectiveness
    At a price of €1,751, Balanset-1A provides the functionality of devices costing €10,000-25,000. The investment pays for itself after preventing just 2-3 bearing failures. Savings on outsourced balancing specialist services totals thousands of euros annually.
    Ease of Use
    Unlike complicated vibration analyzers requiring months of training, mastering Balanset-1A takes 3-4 hours. The step-by-step guide in the software enables professional balancing by personnel without special vibration diagnostics training.
    Mobility and Independence
    The complete kit weighs only 4 kg, with power supplied through the laptop’s USB port. This permits balancing in field conditions, at remote sites, and in difficult-access locations without external power supply.
    Versatile Application
    One device is adequate for balancing the most extensive spectrum of equipment – from small electric motors to large industrial fans and turbines. Support for one and dual-plane balancing covers all common tasks.
    Real Application Results
    Drone Propeller Balancing
    A user achieved vibration reduction from 0.74 mm/s to 0.014 mm/s – a 50-fold improvement. This demonstrates the exceptional accuracy of the device even on small rotors.
    Shopping Center Ventilation Systems
    Engineers effectively balanced radial fans, achieving lower energy consumption, removed excessive noise, and prolonged equipment lifespan. Energy savings recovered the device cost within several months.
    Agricultural Equipment
    Farmers note that Balanset-1A has become an essential tool preventing costly breakdowns during peak season. Reduced vibration of threshing drums led to reduced fuel consumption and bearing wear.
    Cost and Delivery Terms
    Current Prices

    Complete Balanset-1A Kit: €1,751
    OEM Kit (without case, stand, and scales): €1,561
    Special Offer: €50 discount for newsletter subscribers
    Volume Discounts: up to 15% for orders of 4+ units

    Ordering Options

    Official Website: vibromera.eu (recommended)
    eBay: certified sellers with 100% rating
    Industrial Distributors: through B2B channels

    Payment and Shipping Terms

    Payment Methods: PayPal, credit cards, bank transfer
    Shipping: 10-20 business days by international mail
    Shipping Cost: from $10 (economy) to $95 (express)
    Warranty: manufacturer’s warranty
    Technical Support: included in price

    Final Assessment
    Balanset-1A constitutes an ideal solution for organizations aiming to establish an effective equipment balancing system without significant capital expenditure. The device makes accessible access to professional balancing, permitting small enterprises and service centers to deliver services at the level of large industrial companies.
    The blend of accessible price, ease of use, and professional features makes Balanset-1A an indispensable tool for modern technical maintenance. Investment in this device is an investment in equipment dependability, lower operating costs, and enhanced competitiveness of your business.

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