La media dei polli o i polli della media?

‘Me spiego: da li conti che se fanno
secondo le statistiche d’adesso
risurta che te tocca un pollo all’anno:
e, se nun entra ne le spese tue,
t’entra ne la statistica lo stesso
perché c’è un antro che ne magna due.’      

                                                                          Da ‘La statistica’ di Trilussa

 

 

Chissà cosa avrebbe scritto di questi tempi il poeta e scrittore Carlo Alberto Camillo Mariano Salustri, passato alla storia con  lo pseudonimo anagrammato di Trilussa, in merito all’utilizzo della media (storica) in questi terribili giorni che stiamo vivendo. Chissà come avrebbe commentato i dati, o meglio, le curve del contagio che vengono aggiornate giorno per giorno e che dettano i ritmi e le speranze di molti di noi quotidianamente. E chissà che cosa avrebbe scritto sui ricorrenti commenti di analisti, osservatori dei mercati finanziari e professionisti del risparmio gestito o della consulenza che cercano di ‘leggere’ tra i numeri delle crisi finanziarie dell’ultimo secolo il fondo del barile, il momento del riscatto dei mercati. Me lo immagino sornione con i suoi baffi all’insù sostituire ai polli i punti base degli indici e giudicare un po’ tutti questi ricercatori della verità perduta con quell’aria di sufficienza scanzonata e dissacrante che solo ‘i romani de roma de ‘na vorta’ potevano permettersi.

Eh si, perchè di tentativi di dare una spiegazione al momento attuale dei mercati se ne susseguono a migliaia ogni giorno. Ognuno di noi, tra letture di report di case di investimento più o meno blasonate, post sui social media di opinion leader e interviste di ‘strateghi’ dei mercati, ogni giorno legge ed ascolta le opinioni più svariate su quando finirà questo momento di tensione sui mercati finanziari e quanto veloce potrebbe essere il loro recupero.

[modalsurvey id=”1028824379″ style=”flat”]

 

Il lampione e l’ubriaco

Oltre a Trilussa, probabilmente avrebbe avuto qualcosa da ridire anche lo psicologo Paul Watzalawich che nel suo celebre libro ‘Istruzioni per renderci felici’ scrisse del paradosso dell’ubriaco e del lampione.

‘Sotto un lampione c’è un ubriaco che sta cercando qualcosa.

Si avvicina un poliziotto e gli chiede che cosa abbia perduto.

«Ho perso le chiavi di casa», risponde l’uomo, ed entrambi si mettono a cercarle.

Dopo aver guardato a lungo, il poliziotto chiede all’uomo ubriaco se è proprio sicuro di averle perse lì.

L’altro risponde:

«No, non le ho perse qui, ma là dietro», e indica un angolo buio in fondo alla strada.

«Ma allora perché diamine le sta cercando qui?»

«Perché qui c’è più luce!»’

In fin dei conti Watzalawich non ha fatto altro che abbellire quello che già il grande Mark Twain scriveva quasi 100 anni prima: La gente di solito usa le statistiche come un ubriaco i lampioni: più per sostegno che per illuminazione.

 

Sacrosanta verità! E quanto volte a quel ‘gente’ avremmo potuto sostituire ‘politici’, ‘burocrati’, persino ‘economisti’. E ‘analisti finanziari’.

E’ stato sempre un azzardo il confronto storico. Comodo, ma sempre un azzardo. Per il semplice fatto che implica un rincorrersi e ripetersi del passato con una certa ciclicità. A volte funziona, anche spesso in certi contesti, e tutto ciò può anche indurci ad essere estremamente confidenti. In fin dei conti, da molti è stato studiato il potere che hanno le aspettative di creare la realtà, dall’Effetto Placebo all’Effetto Nocebo, dall’Effetto Pigmalione all’Effetto Lucifero, dagli studi di Paul Watzlawick e Giorgio Nardone ai pioneristici contributi di Robert Merton e William Thomas. In finanza sono noti gli effetti delle aspettative autorealizzanti, grazie alle quali si sono moltiplicati analisti tecnici e ‘grafisti’. Ma ha senso leggere e rileggere con tanta enfasi i dati storici in questo momento attuale?

Mi riferisco ai numerosi articoli e studi che circolano in questi giorni che analizzano e mettono a confronto le varie crisi economiche e finanziare che sono accadute negli ultimi 100 anni, con l’obiettivo di studiarne gli effetti in termini di perdita dei mercati finanziari e tempo di recupero dei livelli pre-crisi.

Ed è qui che entrano in gioco le medie. Perdita media dei mercati, tempo medio di recupero degli stessi. Quello che stiamo vivendo è una crisi sanitaria che ha generato una crisi economica da offerta senza precedenti che dovrebbe indurre a tralasciare qualsiasi confronto storico. Ovvio, il ‘lampione’ di cui sopra è comodo, sta lì, ci attrae, ci induce in tentazione, ma è dannatamente fuorviante.

 

Fra dieci anni ci ricorderemo di essere stati tutti più bravi.

E non cadiamo nella dolce trappola del ricordo, di come abbiamo gestito e previsto ad esempio la crisi del 2008 e del 2011. Il problema si chiama ‘hindsight bias’, cioè ci si riferisce a quel giudizio retrospettico che ci porta erroneamente a credere che il risultato di un evento fosse già ovvio e prevedibile nel momento in cui abbiamo preso la decisione, mentre in verità era giustificabile e comprensibile solo a posteriori. Proviamo a spostarci idealmente nel 2030 e di ricordare i fatti del 2020. Probabilmente, molti di noi tenderanno a ricostruire i fatti come prevedibili, che non poteva essere altrimenti, che i mercati non potevano che fare questo. Che i mercati, poi, non potevano che rimbalzare nel modo in cui hanno fatto, etc etc.

Ma non ci facciamo ingannare. In finanza comportamentale questo bias è ben noto, come molti altri. Le variabili in gioco in questo momento sono talmente tante che è impossibile fare una sintesi di quello che potrebbe accadere. In realtà, siamo quasi all’oscuro di cosa possa succedere ai mercati finanziari, ma siamo quasi certi che non accadrà ciò che è avvenuto nelle passate crisi. E non ha neanche senso sedersi al tavolo da pocker senza conoscere le regole del gioco.

 

Chi è il pollo?

C’è un detto per chi gioca a pocker. Se ti siedi al tavolo da gioco e dopo 10 minuti non hai capito chi è il pollo, allora il pollo sei tu! E in questo momento, tutti gli ‘avversari’ sono troppo imprevedibili per comprendere le loro ‘tecniche di gioco’.

L’avversario si chiama ‘tempo’, ma quanto durerà questa crisi?; si chiama ‘propensione al consumo’, ma quale sarà la volontà di consumare, anche beni durevoli, passata la tempesta covid-19; si chiama ‘investimenti’, ma quali e quante saranno le aziende che potranno fare investimenti durevoli e redditizi dopo tutto ciò?

Fare oggi previsioni sui mercati è come fare un ‘all in’ senza avere visto neanche le carte in mano. Al netto degli interventi di politica monetaria e fiscale, solo un evento permetterà a tutti, analisti compresi, di fare previsioni sulle variabili che sono alla base di qualunque asset finanziario e questo evento si chiama ‘cura’ e/o ‘vaccino’. Finchè vi sarà un problema di natura sanitaria di questo tipo, con i rischi di ondate successive anche nei Paesi che ad oggi hanno iniziato a circoscrivere il fenomeno, la volatilità e il downside risk la faranno da padroni. Prendiamoci tutti una sana pausa di riflessione e magari rileggiamoci anche i polli di Trilussa, ma evitiamo di essere i polli delle medie statistiche.

 

 

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  121. 해운대고구려와 룸싸롱: 부산의 역사적 매력과 현대적 즐거움

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  122. Pharmacology’s Role and Drug Development in Modern Society

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